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Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire

Santa Anita, home to Breeders’ Cup World Championships once again this November, installed Trakus at the beginning of their 2012 meet, and in this blog, we offer some of the intriguing data to emerge from the Arcadia, Calif. facility.

With all data reports, we vigilantly note that six months of tracking yields a relatively small data set. Races at six furlongs and one mile were studied given the sample of races available. As more races are run over the years, more substantive analysis is expected. Still, the basic trend that we have seen at most courses equipped with Trakus holds true: winners tend to cover the shortest trip, and horses saddled with inside draws tend to cover less ground. In other words – ground loss matters.

The chart below highlights the average ground traveled by finishing position. As you will note, the average of all winners at six furlongs and the average of both the winners and second-place finishers at one mile, covered the shortest trips.

6 Furlongs - Dirt

1 Mile - Dirt

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

1st

4005

1st

5338

2nd

4007

2nd

5338

3rd

4007

3rd

5344

4th

4007

4th

5344

5th

4009

5th

5346

6th

4009

6th

5348

7th

4009

7th

5347

8th

4009

8th

5352

9th

4011

9th

5356

10th

4013

10th

5360

11th

4010

11th

-

12th

4012

12th

-

Can one get too nano-focused on the machination of in-race dynamics recognizing that the average winner in six-furlong races covered two feet less than the average second, third, or fourth placer? Perhaps. Two feet is roughly a quarter-length - really, a neck.

The results of races at one mile are slightly less miniscule (yes, really), with the difference between the first two finishers and the next two finishers at six feet, or closer to three-quarters of a length.

Below, take note of the average ground traveled by post position for races at the distances studied.

Santa Anita - Average Ground Traveled by Post Position

6 Furlongs - Dirt

 1 Mile - Dirt

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

1

4000

-

-

1

5330

-

-

2

4003

3

0.35

2

5335

5

0.59

3

4003

3

0.35

3

5339

9

1.06

4

4006

6

0.71

4

5345

15

1.76

5

4009

9

1.06

5

5345

15

1.76

6

4012

12

1.41

6

5354

24

2.82

7

4012

12

1.41

7

5355

25

2.94

8

4013

13

1.53

8

5355

25

2.94

9

4018

18

2.12

9

5360

30

3.53

10

4018

18

2.12

10

5374

44

5.18

11

4018

18

2.12

11

-

-

-

12

4027

27

3.18

12

-

-

-

Horses breaking from the inside gate in races at six furlongs and one mile covered the shortest trips. Horses breaking from gates nine and higher in six-furlong contests covered roughly two lengths more than those breaking from the rail, on average. Using that same metric as a breakpoint, starters going one mile and breaking from gates six and higher covered at least almost three lengths more than rail-positioned starters.

Which jockeys are most efficient?

In the past when offering course-specific stats, we have published the full table of jockey efficiency ratings. This time around, the blog offers a sampling of the best. Again, with only one full season of races having been tracked, this should get more robust over time. Take note of the most efficient jockeys below. The “negative” rating is reflective of the number of feet their mounts covered less than the average expected from their starting gates based on the data above – in other words, how much ground they saved per mount.

Santa Anita - 6 Furlongs

Santa Anita - 1 Mile

Jockey

Rating

Wins

Mounts

$2 ROI

Jockey

Rating

Wins

Mounts

$2 ROI

Stra, K

-6.67

2

14

$6.78

Gomez, G

-10.34

13

26

$5.90

Gryder, A

-4.63

4

33

$2.82

Baze, T

-9.30

7

45

$1.80

Baze, T

-3.47

13

100

$2.15

Flores, E

-8.04

0

16

$0.00

Gomez, G

-3.1

8

34

$1.90

Gryder, A

-7.98

1

21

$0.86

Mojica, O

-2.81

3

36

$3.18

Stevens, G

-5.35

1

11

$0.27

Kayla Stra, Aaron Gryder, and Tyler Baze were the most efficient in races at six furlongs while Garrett Gomez, fourth in the six-furlong standings, was the most efficient at a mile. You will notice that Baze, Gomez, and Gryder were certainly the most consistent, regularly attentive to the ground their mounts covered at both distances. Jockeys needed at least 10 mounts at the distance to qualify for inclusion, with 29 qualifying at six furlongs and 23 at one mile.

Garrett Gomez’s performance at one mile suggests that he saves his average mount approximately 1 ¼ lengths during the course of a race. Even after years away from the saddle, Hall of Famer Gary Stevens managed a spot into the top five, saving more than five feet of ground from the average, slightly more than a half-length.

As more races are run utilizing Trakus at Santa Anita over the next season, we will update the ratings with this increased sample size.

Perspective on Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings

Greg Wood, racing columnist for The Guardian, penned a piece earlier this week outlining trainer Luca Cumani’s frustration with several rides from jockey Jamie Spencer. Among the details of that fracas, Wood tried to rationalize the importance of quantifying the many choices made in running. “When you are trying to steer the most direct and efficient path through the blizzard of conditional probabilities that is a horse race, it is generally wise to keep as many options open as possible, and to do so for as long as possible.”

We couldn’t have said it better than Wood. Can one get beyond the anecdote and identify true trends in riding styles and performance that go beyond the typical information available to horseplayers for decades?

Some might minimize the impact of the data offered in this blog, and others like it for different courses equipped with Trakus. At the end of the day, racing is a game of inches …until it is a game of centimeters, and then millimeters. As long as there is a discernable difference between first and second or second and third, punters (and trainers) the world over will try to determine what accounted for a result. After more than a century of relatively non-dynamic statistics about the human partners to equine participants, the Jockey Efficiency Ratings serve as an introductory glance to the future. 

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Dentro del Tren de Carrera:  Estadísticas de Santa Anita - Traducción por Michael Burns 

Santa Anita, sede de la Breeders´ Cup World Championship una vez más este mes de noviembre, instaló Trakus a principios de su temporada 2012, y en este blog, le ofrecemos algunos interesantes datos que surgieron del hipódromo ubicado en Arcadia, California.

Con todos los informes de datos, vigilantemente notamos que seis meses de seguimiento resulta en relativamente una pequeña muestra. Se estudiaron carreras disputadas sobre 1,200 metros y una milla dada la muestra de carreras disponibles. A medida que más carreras se realizan a través de los años, se espera un análisis más sustantivo. Igualmente, la tendencia básica que hemos visto en la mayoría de los hipódromos equipados con Trakus mantiene cierto lo siguiente: los ganadores tienden a cubrir un trayecto más corto, y los caballos que parten por dentro tienden a cubrir menos terreno. En otras palabras - la pérdida de terreno es de suma importancia.

La siguiente tabla destaca el promedio recorrido por el orden de llegada. Como podrá observar, la media de todos los ganadores en 1,200 metros y el promedio del primer y segundo clasificado en una milla, recorrió una distancia más corta.

1200 metros - Arena

1 Milla - Arena

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

1st

4005

1st

5338

2nd

4007

2nd

5338

3rd

4007

3rd

5344

4th

4007

4th

5344

5th

4009

5th

5346

6th

4009

6th

5348

7th

4009

7th

5347

8th

4009

8th

5352

9th

4011

9th

5356

10th

4013

10th

5360

11th

4010

11th

-

12th

4012

12th

-

¿Se puede estar demasiado enfocado en la maquinación de la dinámica de las carreras que reconocen que el ganador promedio en carreras de 1,200 metros cubrieron dos pies menos que el promedio del segundo, tercero o cuarto clasificado? Tal vez. Dos pies es aproximadamente un cuarto de cuerpo - en realidad, un pescuezo.

Los resultados de las carreras en una milla son ligeramente menos minúsculo (sí , de verdad), con la diferencia entre los dos primeros clasificados y los siguientes dos finalistas a los seis pies, o más cerca de tres cuartos de cuerpo.

A continuación, tome nota del promedio recorrido por el cajón de partida para las carreras en las distancias estudiadas.

Santa Anita - Promedio de Terreno Recorrido por Orden de Partida

1200 metros - Arena

 1 Milla - Arena

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

1

4000

-

-

1

5330

-

-

2

4003

3

0.35

2

5335

5

0.59

3

4003

3

0.35

3

5339

9

1.06

4

4006

6

0.71

4

5345

15

1.76

5

4009

9

1.06

5

5345

15

1.76

6

4012

12

1.41

6

5354

24

2.82

7

4012

12

1.41

7

5355

25

2.94

8

4013

13

1.53

8

5355

25

2.94

9

4018

18

2.12

9

5360

30

3.53

10

4018

18

2.12

10

5374

44

5.18

11

4018

18

2.12

11

-

-

-

12

4027

27

3.18

12

-

-

-

Los caballos que parten por los cajones de adentro en carreras de 1,200 metros y una milla recorren el trayecto más corto. Los caballos que parten del cajón nueve o más abiertos  en carreras de 1,200 metros recorren aproximadamente dos cuerpos más que los que parten por adentro, en promedio. Usando esa misma métrica como un punto de quiebre, los ejemplares que corren la milla y parten del cajón seis y más abiertos recorren por lo menos casi tres cuerpos más de los que parten por los cajones de adentro.

¿Qué jinetes son más eficientes?

En el pasado a la hora de ofrecer cursos específicos de las estadísticas, hemos publicado la tabla completa de los índices de eficiencia del jinete  En esta ocasión, el blog ofrece una muestra de lo mejor. Una vez más, con sólo una temporada completa de carreras después de haber realizado el seguimiento, esto debería convertirse más robusto con el tiempo. Tome nota de los jinetes más eficientes abajo. La calificación "negativa" es un reflejo de la cantidad de pies que sus montas cubrieron menos que el promedio esperado de sus cajones de partida basado en los datos arriba - en otras palabras, la cantidad de terreno que ahorraron por monta.

Santa Anita - 1200 metros

Santa Anita - 1 Milla

Jockey

Rating

Wins

Mounts

$2 ROI

Jockey

Rating

Wins

Mounts

$2 ROI

Stra, K

-6.67

2

14

$6.78

Gomez, G

-10.34

13

26

$5.90

Gryder, A

-4.63

4

33

$2.82

Baze, T

-9.30

7

45

$1.80

Baze, T

-3.47

13

100

$2.15

Flores, E

-8.04

0

16

$0.00

Gomez, G

-3.1

8

34

$1.90

Gryder, A

-7.98

1

21

$0.86

Mojica, O

-2.81

3

36

$3.18

Stevens, G

-5.35

1

11

$0.27

Los jinetes Kayla Stra, Aaron Gryder y Tyler Baze resultaron ser los más eficientes en carreras de 1,200 metros, mientras que Garrett Gómez, cuarto en la clasificación de 1,200 metros, fue el más eficiente en una milla. Usted se dará cuenta de que Baze, Gómez y Gryder eran sin duda los más consistentes, regularmente los más eficientes en ahorrar terreno con sus conducidos en ambas distancias. Jockeys necesitan al menos 10 montas en la distancia para clasificar y ser incluídos, con 29 clasificados en la distancias de 1,200 metros y otros 23 en la distancia de una milla.

El rendimiento de Garrett Gómez en distancias de una milla sugiere que le ahorra a sus conducidos un promedio de aproximadamente 1 ¼ cuerpo en el transcurso de una carrera. Incluso después de no montar por varios años, el jinete Miembro del Salón de la Fama, Gary Stevens, consiguió colocarse entre los cinco primeros de la clasificación, ahorrando más de cinco piez del promedio, un poco más de medio cuerpo.

A medida que se realizen más carreras la próxima temporada en Santa Anita utilizando Trakus, vamos a poder actualizar las calificaciones con esta muestra ampliada.

Perspectiva de Trakus sobre Eficiencia de Ratings en Jinetes

Greg Wood, columnista de carreras para "The Guardian", escribió una obra a principios de esta semana esbozando la frustración del entrenador Luca Cumani con varias conducciones del jinete Jamie Spencer. Entre los detalles de ese altercado, Wood trató de racionalizar la importancia de la cuantificación de las muchas decisiones en la carrera . "Cuando usted está tratando de dirigir el camino más directo y eficiente a través de la tormenta de las probabilidades condicionales encontradas en una carrera de caballos, en general es sabio mantener la mayor cantidad de opciones abiertas como sea posible, y para ello el mayor tiempo posible."

No podríamos haberlo dicho mejor que Wood. ¿Se puede ir más allá de la anécdota y de identificar a las verdaderas tendencias en estilos de conducción y el rendimiento que van más allá de la información típica disponible para los apostadores de las carreras de caballos desde hace décadas?

Algunos podrían minimizar el impacto de los datos ofrecidos en este blog, y otros similares para los distintos cursos equipados con Trakus . Al final del día, las carreras son un juego de pulgadas ... hasta que es un juego de centímetros , y luego de milímetros. Mientras haya una diferencia perceptible entre el primer y segundo o segundo y tercero, los jugadores (y entrenadores) de todo el mundo tratarán de determinar lo que representó un resultado. Después de más de un siglo de estadísticas relativamente poco dinámicas sobre los agentes humanos a los participantes equinos, la eficiencia del Rating en Jinetes sirven como una mirada introductoria para el futuro.

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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