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Blog - GAMBLING

Mystic Love, with jockey Elvis Trujillo on board, wins the Dania Beach Stakes (Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportswire)

The weekend stakes action at Gulfstream Park was a lesson in the preferred hashtag of @TrakusRacing - #groundlossmatters. 

Charming Kitten was a hot even-money favorite in the Dania Beach Stakes, emerging from a two-month respite preceded by an even ninth in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and before that, a third in the With Anticipation (G2) at Saratoga.  But the son of Kitten’s Joy was planted in gate ten for the Dania Beach, forced to negotiate a trip from the widest draw.  In his first two career starts, he settled just off the pace, about two-lengths from the early leader.  If jockey John Velasquez was planning on keeping Charming Kitten close to the pace, it was likely to be at the expense of covering extra ground. 

And that was how the Dania Beach went down.

Charming Kitten broke towards the back of the pack, but rushed into a mid-pack stalking position around the first turn, about three-wide, and edged a bit closer to the front as the race progressed.  Mystic Love, breaking from post two, sat tidy on the rail throughout for jockey Elvis Trujillo.  Through the first four furlongs, Charming Kitten traveled 24 feet more than Mystic Love, the equivalent of about 2.8 lengths. 

Leaving the backstretch, Mystic Love retained a position in third on the rail, tracking leader Tate’s Landing, while Charming Kitten, who was running fourth and flanking Mystic Love, angled out.  The presence of 20-1 outsider Reporting Star, racing second at the time just to the outside of Tate’s Landing, essentially forced the hand of Velasquez to either take up and angle in behind Mystic Love (potentially stalling Charming Kitten’s momentum and just putting his mount in a tough spot) or remain wide, but in the clear. 

Past the midpoint of the far turn, Tate’s Landing came off the rail slightly, and Trujillo guided Mystic Love through the opening while Charming Kitten remained on the wide path.  Overall, Charming Kitten covered 26 feet more than Mystic Love around that final turn, and for the race, made it an even 50 feet of additional coverage. 

Gulfstream Park - Dec 15, 2012 - Dania Beach Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf)

Finish

Horse

Distance

Delta

Ft to Len

Actual Margin

TA Margin

Avg MPH

1st

Mystic Love

5304

-

-

(0.5)

-

36.6

2nd

Charming Kitten

5354

50

5.9

0.50

-5.4

36.9

3rd

Newfound Zapper

5311

7

0.8

1.50

0.7

36.6

4th

Itsmyluckyday

5350

46

5.4

2.25

-3.2

36.8

5th

Reporting Star

5351

47

5.5

2.50

-3.0

36.8

6th

Squall King

5327

23

2.7

3.25

0.5

36.6

7th

Thunder Calls

5314

10

1.2

3.75

2.6

36.4

8th

Tate's Landing

5318

14

1.6

5.00

3.4

36.4

9th

Hard to Name

5344

40

4.7

17.50

12.8

35.8

10th

All Keyed Up

5374

70

8.2

20.50

12.3

35.8

 
The final margin of the race was a half-length, but Charming Kitten covered the equivalent of an extra 5.9 lengths.  In the chart above, “Ft to Len” is the conversion of the “Delta” from feet to lengths, while the “TA Margin” is the equation of the “Actual Margin” less the “Ft to Len.” conversion.  You will notice that both fourth placer Itsmyluckyday and fifth placer Reporting Star covered more ground (when converted to lengths) than their margin of defeat, while third placer Newfound Zapper and sixth home Squall King saw their Trakus-adjusted margins get to less than a length within Mystic Love.

While there was significantly less strategy involved in Sunday’s Harlan’s Holiday Stakes at Gulfstream, the data tells the overall story.  Csaba, a handy winner by 3 ¾ lengths, remained glued to the rail throughout, while well-supported Delegation was wider on both turns, covering almost 6 ¼ lengths more than the winner. 

Trakus returns on the Southern California racing circuit next week with the shift of racing back to Santa Anita.  It should be an exciting way to end the year!  Happy holidays to all.

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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