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Blog - GAMBLING

Jockey James Graham

Keeneland Race Course was the first track in America to install Trakus. With only six weeks of racing each year, it takes a considerable amount of time to build a significant and still meaningfully recent sample to analyze jockey performance. Trakus assembled jockey data over the last four meets (Fall 2010 through Spring 2012) using races run at the two most frequently used distances on Polytrack – six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles.  In last week’s blog, we identified that the winners at Keeneland over the two distances studied did in fact cover the shortest trip. 

Below, the chart identifies each post position and the average number of feet covered by every starter tracked by Trakus at the last four meets at Keeneland. Next, the “Delta” is the difference between that post’s average ground coverage and the most efficient post – in other words, this is extra ground a horse would be expected to cover based solely on post position. The delta is then converted to lengths for enhanced applications. For example, breaking from post six going 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, the average of all horses who started from that gate during the period studied at Keeneland was 5,694 feet, 23 feet more than horses who break from post one. 23 feet equates to roughly 2.71 lengths of extra ground. These same numbers below are what each jockey’s performance is compared against, based on their starting post, when developing the Jockey Efficiency Ratings.

Keeneland - Average Ground Traveled by Post Position

6 Furlongs - Polytrack

 1 1/16 Miles - Polytrack

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

Post

Feet

Delta

Lengths

1

3992

-

-

1

5671

-

-

2

3995

3

0.35

2

5675

4

0.47

3

3996

4

0.47

3

5680

9

1.06

4

3998

6

0.71

4

5685

14

1.65

5

4002

10

1.18

5

5688

17

2.00

6

4004

12

1.41

6

5694

23

2.71

7

4007

15

1.76

7

5696

25

2.94

8

4007

15

1.76

8

5699

28

3.29

9

4011

19

2.24

9

5703

32

3.76

10

4014

22

2.59

10

5708

37

4.35

11

4015

23

2.71

11

5709

38

4.47

12

4017

25

2.94

12

5709

38

4.47

The numbers above are what could essentially be termed a straight-line post-position handicap. Incrementally, the farther out your post, the more ground you are expected to cover in running. Considering the numbers quoted in last week’s blog, this is meaningful. The average winner over these distances in the last four meets covered the shortest average trip.

While regular readers of this blog might recognize the repetitious nature of our next comment, we don’t hesitate to remind that we recognize inside travel isn’t always best for each horse. Each race’s dynamics offers different scenarios that jockeys interpret and act upon within fractions of a second. The jockeys listed in the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings below are ranked by order of their ability to save ground relative to the averages expected based on their post positions. A negative delta indicates the jockey saves that much ground on average, in feet, of all the mounts studied. A positive delta signifies ground covered above the average expected from their starting post position. In order for a jockey to qualify for inclusion in the study, they were required to have at least 30 combined mounts over the distances studied in the last four seasons.

Keeneland - Jockey Efficiency Ratings - 6 Furlongs - Polytrack

RANK

JOCKEY

AVG DELTA

MOUNTS

WINS

AVG ODDS

ROI

1

Prado, E

-5.45

21

1

12.31

$1.22

2

Graham, J

-4.43

68

7

12.78

$2.11

3

Saez, G

-3.54

12

0

20.38

$0.00

4

Castanon, J

-2.97

37

8

12.57

$2.54

5

Mena, M

-2.26

53

5

15.48

$1.41

6

Sellers, S

-2.06

29

3

18.54

$1.70

7

Castellano, J

-1.00

16

3

4.75

$1.00

8

Albarado, R

-0.85

67

12

6.90

$1.86

9

Cruz, M

-0.42

21

3

14.23

$2.36

10

Pedroza, M

-0.29

31

2

24.41

$0.41

11

Leparoux, J

-0.11

75

18

4.81

$2.22

12

Court, J

0.00

19

2

23.71

$2.26

13

Lenclud, F

0.30

21

1

25.99

$0.28

14

Theriot, J

0.57

26

2

22.81

$0.85

15

Lebron, V

0.67

35

4

32.04

$1.77

16

Lanerie, C

1.73

53

6

14.76

$2.71

17

Alvarado, J

1.95

20

2

12.26

$0.69

18

Bridgmohan, S

2.31

19

4

8.08

$1.74

19

Gomez, G

2.38

27

4

4.62

$1.87

20

Hernandez, B

2.72

22

2

19.71

$1.10

21

Desormeaux, K

3.41

30

5

9.87

$2.11

22

Creed, B

4.50

18

1

29.47

$2.88

23

Borel, C

5.65

27

0

12.51

$0.00

24

McKee, J

6.27

22

0

28.03

$0.00

 

Keeneland - Jockey Efficiency Ratings - 1 1/16 Miles - Polytrack

RANK

JOCKEY

AVG DELTA

MOUNTS

WINS

AVG ODDS

ROI

1

Graham, J

-6.50

86

12

13.46

$2.29

2

Saez, G

-4.44

18

2

20.18

$1.66

3

McKee, J

-3.88

17

0

21.53

$0.00

4

Lenclud, F

-3.46

33

1

20.30

$0.73

5

Alvarado, J

-2.24

25

1

11.15

$0.27

6

Theriot, J

-1.35

14

1

26.62

$1.76

7

Leparoux, J

-0.89

103

23

4.70

$1.87

8

Prado, E

-0.38

35

3

14.14

$2.79

9

Mena, M

-0.37

40

4

20.35

$1.28

10

Lanerie, C

-0.30

50

5

14.01

$1.32

11

Castellano, J

0.34

35

7

5.88

$4.18

12

Cruz, M

0.88

29

2

14.34

$0.47

13

Castanon, J

1.11

37

4

16.12

$1.85

14

Court, J

1.77

22

5

27.09

$6.74

15

Gomez, G

2.43

32

3

6.53

$0.94

16

Albarado, R

2.55

61

5

10.41

$0.86

17

Sellers, S

3.25

20

3

23.06

$3.17

18

Pedroza, M

4.64

29

3

30.22

$7.54

19

Hernandez, B

4.75

21

1

19.40

$0.48

20

Bridgmohan, S

4.89

28

4

10.23

$1.57

21

Lebron, V

5.52

20

1

19.80

$0.82

22

Borel, C

7.20

26

2

14.83

$1.43

23

Desormeaux, K

7.40

27

6

8.13

$4.32

24

Creed, B

8.56

16

0

28.81

$0.00


Takeaways from the Jockey Efficiency Ratings at Keeneland

  • James Graham emerges as the clear-cut leader in efficient trips, bolstered even further with a positive ROI over an astonishing 154 mounts. His horses were routinely sent off at longer odds as well, averaging roughly 13-1 on all mounts studied.
  • John McKee, despite not winning a race at these specific distances, was widely disparate in his rides, saving plenty of ground in two turn races (-3.88ft), but eschewing that need in sprints (6.27).
  • Gabriel Saez barely qualified for the study based on his number of mounts but clearly paid close attention to saving ground with a third and a second overall ranking at the distances studied.
  • Calvin Borel, renowned for his rail-riding penchant at Churchill, does not seem to share the same sentiment at Keeneland, covering a significant amount of ground above average at both distances studied.
  • Jon Court found himself riding relatively even with expected averages but sported gaudy ROI numbers off the mounts he booted home.

There is surely much to digest within the numbers above and we offer the totals for your own dissemination. Trakus takes your observational anecdotes and quantifies them based on the data collected. While countless variables exist within each race and each ride, the quantified “big picture” is a fascinating one.  As always, your comments are welcomed below. Good luck at the 2012 Keeneland fall meet!

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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