Rocket Fuel
Ultimate 48 Sweepstakes
Please provide a valid email address.
Close

Blog - GAMBLING

Besides being jockeys that raced at Del Mar in 2012, what do Aaron Gryder, Yuichi Fukunaga, and Kevin Krigger have in common? These three riders emerged as the most efficient riders at the summer stand in another edition of the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings (JERs). Before this year’s Del Mar meet, we offered a look back at the 2011 meet, identifying the jockey performance trends through the eyes of Trakus. A meet-long study of two-turn races was conducted after the 2011 campaign at Woodbine.

In the 21st century, with the opportunity to extract more specific in-race data than ever before, hopefully these studies offer a fresh twist in racing analysis. The intent is to identify trends that exist, in aggregate, for jockey preferences and riding styles based on quantitative data, not observational anecdotes. A jockey’s most common statistical line, winning percentage and actual number of wins/places/shows offer only high-level insight to race riding, while the JERs provide a more intricate portrait of actual style.

Trakus data from races at 5 ½ and six furlongs were used for this study, which encompassed more than 1,100 starters at the just-completed season. The study from the 2011 season used a compilation of three distances on two surfaces, but the one-turn, sprinting focus of this season’s study offered a larger sample size of races to strengthen data trends.

Every starter’s trip, in feet traveled, is compared to the accumulated average number of feet traveled for each horse breaking from the same post position at that distance over the course of the meet. For example, horses breaking from post No. 1 in a six-furlong race this meet covered, on average, 3,997 feet, while horses starting from post No. 10 in six-furlong races covered about 4,017 feet, on average. This suggests that the average horse from gate 10 had to travel 20 feet more those breaking from the rail. Twenty feet is equivalent to approximately 2 ¼ lengths of added ground.    

The degree to which this extra ground coverage impacts a race result varies to unknowing ends. As always, we offer the disclaimer that we completely recognize that traveling wide may be the best decision for rider and horse based on past performance, and ever-changing race dynamics. 

Below is a chart with the 25 jockeys profiled at the meet, each of whom had at least ten mounts total from the two surveyed distances. Unlike previous studies, a jockey did not have to win a race to be included, but rather just had to qualify based on number of mounts. Jockeys are ranked in order from the largest negative jockey efficiency rating (which indicated number of feet saved on average) to the highest positive numbers (which indicates number of feet above average traveled).  

Rank

Jockey

JER

Mounts

Wins

Avg Odds

$2 ROI

1

Gryder, A

-6.76

26

2

21.07

$2.45

2

Fukunaga, Y

-5.54

19

1

19.36

$0.94

3

Krigger, K

-4.46

53

8

11.99

$2.75

4

Sutherland, C

-4.31

17

3

14.42

$1.68

5

Arias, S

-2.61

34

1

39.07

$0.56

6

Hernandez, J

-1.93

62

4

17.64

$1.39

7

Bednar, V

-1.86

35

0

35.72

$0.00

8

Talamo, J

-1.8

94

11

6.87

$0.96

9

Valdivia, J

-1.57

34

0

25.91

$0.00

10

Quinonez, A

-1.07

39

3

19.71

$1.36

11

Bejerano, R

0.08

78

17

3.51

$1.42

12

Pedroza, M

0.1

80

10

16.10

$1.62

13

Nakatani, C

0.18

42

5

10.71

$1.12

14

Gomez, G

0.39

61

10

5.97

$1.15

15

Garcia, M

1.07

58

9

9.28

$1.77

16

Maldonado, E

1.09

64

9

14.24

$4.09

17

Figueroa, O

1.37

11

0

40.47

$0.00

18

Flores, E

1.94

42

5

19.63

$1.54

19

Flores, D

2.18

43

4

14.55

$1.34

20

Delgadillo, A

2.41

43

6

20.76

$2.89

21

Valenzuela, P

5.48

22

3

12.89

$2.88

22

Vergara, D

5.9

13

1

33.20

$0.80

23

Espinoza, V

6.19

58

5

16.53

$3.00

24

Smith, M

6.47

12

3

8.73

$4.48

25

Bisono, A

6.58

11

3

19.27

$9.13

 

Aaron Gryder recorded the most efficient riding in the study, with mounts averaging 6.76 feet of ground saving relative to the average from their starting post position. This suggests that in aggregate, Gryder’s mounts saved the most ground. Visiting Japanese jockey Yuichi Fukunaga, who managed just one win during his American stay, was the second most efficient rider, while Kevin Krigger was third. 

The average odds for each jockey’s mounts in the races studied are listed, along with the return (ROI) on a $2 bet. An ROI in excess of $2 suggests a profit had you wagered $2 on each of that jockey’s mounts in the study. Alex Bisono, who was narrowly considered the least efficient jockey from 11 mounts sampled, brought home some big prices to supply a gaudy ROI.    

Certainly, there are other interesting tidbits you might glean from the data provided. As always, feel free to comment below, or on Twitter @TrakusRacing – we are interested to hear your thoughts on this type of data. 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

blog comments powered by Disqus

Sponsors & Partners

  • FoxSports1
  • NBC Sports
  • Logo 6
  • Saratoga
  • Santa Anita
  • CBS Sports
  • Monmouth
  • Keeneland
  • Gulfstream Park
  • Del Mar
  • Belmont Park
  • Arlington Park
  • OwnerView