Photo Courtesy of Eclipse SportsWire
Anyone who has ever placed a wager on a horse race or a bought lottery ticket or entered an NFL office pool has probably daydreamed about seeing tomorrow’s newspaper today.
How great would that be? Knowing today what will happen tomorrow. Unless, of course, it turns out to be a Twilight Zone tale in which after seeing the racing results on page 64 of your favorite tabloid, you turn some pages and find your obituary on page 42.
Well, on a less harrowing note, there is a way for handicappers to glimpse into the future without any frightening consequences.
By simply monitoring probable daily double payoffs, some clues about the wagering patterns for the next race – and perhaps its outcome – can be uncovered.
Allow me to explain.
For newcomers, a daily double is a bet that requires picking the winners of two races. Its name was coined more than 50 years ago when it was the only type of exotic wager a track would offer and it covered the first two races of the day.
Nowadays, aside from the daily double, there’s usually a late double on the last two races and in many cases a rolling double spans the entire card so there’s at least one double on every race.
The double is basically a parlay wager on two horses, though the win price on each horse does not dictate the payoff. The double is a separate wager and its payoff might reflect the win odds but it can also be higher or lower.
It’s just another means of cashing a wager on a horse, and therein rests one of its lesser-known values.
By charting the payoffs for each combination in the daily double, an astute handicapper can see if there’s an unusual amount of interest on a horse in the second half of the double.
Since late betting swings can often hit a home run, the best tactic is to make a copy of each daily double “will pay” (the payoff if both horses win) with about 5 minutes left before post time. As difficult as that might sound, in an era of online wagering it merely requires hitting the copy and paste keys in a process that lasts about five seconds.
If you have an online account, as soon as the race is over, you can make another copy of the odds. If not, just wait until the “will pays” with the horse that won the first leg of the double are posted.
By comparing the final “will pays” with the prices at the five-minute mark, a late wagering move could stand out like Yao Ming in a jockey’s room. Say, for example, the payoffs with the victorious No. 7 horse in the first race rise with every horse in the second race – except the No. 5. That payoff, let’s say, drops from $60 to $30.
Clearly someone, or better yet, a lot of someones like the No. 5 horse and they might dump a large wad of cash on him in the final minute or two of the upcoming race, hoping they don’t tip their hand too soon. But if you charted the double payoffs, you would know what’s coming ahead of time and have plenty of time to decide on whether or not to jump aboard.
Of course, this system doesn’t work all the time. On occasions, there might not be a discernible pattern. Four or five horses might drop, or the “will pay” for every horse rises.
Yet sometimes, even in a race in which the payoffs on all or most of the horses sink, you might notice that a horse which had the seventh-highest “will pay” with five minutes to go might finish as the second choice in the wagering.
Late money, which might be smart money in that instance, did that. And 20 minutes before that horse’s win odds begin to plummet, you will know what will happen and can join in – without running the risk of reading a familiar-sounding obit.
What can be better than that?
And what are your thoughts? Sound logical? What are some of your favorite tricks of the trade as a handicapper? If you have any questions, email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
WINNING IS JUST MORE FUN
Photo Courtesy of Eclipse SportsWire