Dance With Fate (above racing in California) has a big chance in the 2014 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland Race Course. (Benoit Photo)

First run in 1911 at the Kentucky Association Track, the Blue Grass Stakes, named for the Bluegrass region of Kentucky, has served as an important Kentucky Derby prep race since establishment. The race is worth 170 points (100-40-20-10) and is a make-or-break race for quite a few horses to even get at shot at the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Since debuting at Keeneland in 1937, 10 winners of the Blue Grass Stakes have won the Kentucky Derby and another nine horses that ran in the prep race have gone on to take home that garland roses in the first Saturday in May. Strike the Gold was the last horse to win the Blue Grass Stakes and the Kentucky Derby back in 1991; other winners include superstars Northern Dancer and Spectacular Bid.

This year’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes drew a full field of 14 horses (with one also eligible). It’s a wide-open race and I think the favorites are quite vulnerable. Get your ID ready, I wouldn’t be shocked if you need it to cash your trifecta or superfecta tickets.

Wesley Ward trained Pablo Del Monte had a pair of wins on the synthetic Polytrack surface at Keeneland last year – two of the easiest wins you would want to see. He is definitely a horse for the course and, like his sire, Giant’s Causeway, he should improve with the added distance. He seems to be coming up to this race perfectly after a series of three good workouts. He could hit the board to round out a nice trifecta or exacta and can’t be ignored at a price.

Harry’s Holiday lost his last race by a nose at Turfway Park, another Polytrack surface, after being nailed at the finish line. He’s gone the distance and proved himself a contender. I’m a big fan of the jockey (Rosie Napravnik) and trainer (Mike Maker) combo, which has proven itself “Derby worthy” once already this year after they took the Louisiana Derby with Vicar’s in Trouble (my best bet that race). Harry’s Holiday is a must use; he should be in the mix.

HARRY'S HOLIDAY WINNING 96ROCK STAKES AT TURFWAY

John C. Engelhardt for Pat Lang Photography

I think Bobby's Kitten, the lukewarm, 3-to-1 morning-line favorite, will be overbet. He’s a turf (grass) horse who has never raced on the Polytrack. His connections probably will try to rate this natural speed horse, so too many “ifs” here for me. He could be there, but at a short price I don’t see much betting value. Note: since being run on Polytrack for the past seven years, a favorite hasn’t won this race and my bet is that this streak continues. I’m only using him sparingly underneath.

Although Dance With Fate hasn’t raced in nearly two months, he’s no stranger to coming off a layoff and winning. He’s far and away the best closer in the race. He ran second in two Grade 1 races against top-caliber California horses, which no other contender can claim. In my opinion, he has some class and is my longshot selection in this wide-open Blue Grass. He needs to run first or second to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby, and I think he has what it takes.

Medal Count proved himself last week on the turf and he has the class and breeding for this race. Can he hit the board (and from such a disadvantageous post position) on such a short, one-week turn around? I would like to think so. He should be in the mix to round out a nice exotic bet.

Although his post position isn't doing him any favors, Gala Award has had three solid races on turf –which could be indicative of a promising transition over to the Polytrack. Unlike most other horses in the field, he has run this distance and is the sole winner in this field at 1 1/8 miles. Additionally, the jockey-trainer combination of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher fits with the “big trainers, big jockeys, big days” adage I was taught as a kid. With this horse, I simply can’t ignore it.

Vic’s Picks:

Top Selections: #8 Dance With Fate, #4 Harry’s Holiday, #14 Gala Award, #3 Pablo Del Monte, #5 Bobby’s Kitten

Here are three strategies for you to bet your $20:

Strategy A: $10 win, $10 show on #8 Dance With Fate –“safe bet”

Strategy B: $2 exacta 4,8 with 3,4,5,8, 14 ($16) and $2 exacta 14 with 4,8 ($4)

Strategy C: $1 trifecta 4,8 with 3,4, 5, 8 with 3,4,5,8,14 ($18) and $1 trifecta 14 with 4,8 with 4,8 ($2) 

As always, as they say in the “Hunger Games”: “May the odds be ever in your favor.” – literally.

$750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

Saturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 11, Post Time 5:45 p.m. ET

3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles (synthetic Polytrack surface)

TV: Watch on Fox Sports 1 from 4:30-6 p.m. ET

AE - Denotes also eligible, which means the horse would need at least one entrant to defect from the race in order to draw into the field. All runners carry 123 pounds

WATCH THE BLUE GRASS ON FOX SPORTS1